Which is Worse Type I or Type II Errors in Statistics

Type I errors in statistics occur when statisticians incorrectly reject the null hypothesis, or statement of no effect, when the null hypothesis is true while Type II errors occur when statisticians fail to reject the null hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis, or the statement for which the test is being conducted to provide evidence in support of, is true. Type I and Type II errors are both built into the process of hypothesis testing, and though it may seem that we would want to make the probability of both of these errors as small as possible, often it is not possible to reduce the probabilities of these errors, which begs the question: Which of the two errors is more serious to make? The short answer to this question is that it really depends on the situation. In some cases, a Type I error is preferable to a Type II error, but in other applications, a Type I error is more dangerous to make than a Type II error. In order to ensure proper planning for the statistical testing procedure, one must carefully consider the consequences of both of these types of errors when the time comes to decide whether or not to reject the null hypothesis. We will see examples of both situations in what follows. Type I and Type II Errors We begin by recalling the definition of a Type I error and a Type II error. In most statistical tests, the  null hypothesis is a statement of the prevailing claim about a population of no particular effect while the alternative hypothesis is the statement that we wish to provide evidence for in our hypothesis test. For tests of significance there are four possible results: We reject the null hypothesis and the null hypothesis is true. This is what is known as a Type I error.We reject the null hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis is true. In this situation the correct decision has been made.We fail to reject the null hypothesis and the null hypothesis is true. In this situation the correct decision has been made.We fail to reject the null hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis is true. This is what is known as a Type II error. Obviously, the preferred outcome of any statistical hypothesis test would be the second or third, wherein the correct decision has been made and no error occurred, but more often than not, an error is made in during the course of hypothesis testing—but thats all part of the procedure. Still, knowing how to properly conduct a procedure and avoid false positives can help reduce the number of Type I and Type II errors. Core Differences of Type I and Type II Errors In more colloquial terms we can describe these two kinds of errors as corresponding to certain results of a testing procedure. For a Type I error we incorrectly reject the null hypothesis—in other words, our statistical test falsely provides positive evidence for the alternative hypothesis. Thus a Type I error corresponds to a â€Å"false positive† test result. On the other hand, a Type II error occurs when the alternative hypothesis is true and we do not reject the null hypothesis. In such a way our test incorrectly provides evidence against the alternative hypothesis. Thus a Type II error can be thought of as a â€Å"false negative† test result. Essentially, these two errors are inverses of one another, which is why they cover the entirety of errors made in statistical testing, but they also differ in their impact if the Type I or Type II error remains undiscovered or unresolved. Which Error Is Better By thinking in terms of false positive and false negative results, we are better equipped to consider which of these errors are better—Type II seems to have a negative connotation, for good reason. Suppose you are designing a medical screening for a disease. A false positive of a Type I error may give a patient some anxiety, but this will lead to other testing procedures which will ultimately reveal the initial test was incorrect. In contrast, a false negative from a Type II error would give a patient the incorrect assurance that he or she does not have a disease when he or she in fact does. As a result of this incorrect information, the disease would not be treated. If doctors could choose between these two options, a false positive is more desirable than a false negative. Now suppose that someone had been put on trial for murder. The null hypothesis here is that the person is not guilty. A Type I error would occur if the person were found guilty of a murder that he or she did not commit, which would be a very serious outcome for the defendant. On the other hand, a Type II error would occur if the jury finds the person not guilty even though he or she committed the murder, which is a great outcome for the defendant but not for society as a whole. Here we see the value in a judicial system that seeks to minimize Type I errors.

Doubt in a Farewell to Arms by Hemingway - 1862 Words

There were nearly 10 million men dead of the 65 million men who fought in World War I (Harden). Frederic Henry is the driving code hero in A Farewell to Arms through the war as he shows much courage through the warzone, powers courageously through a struggle to validate himself, and acts in a realistic manner through his struggle with Catherine. Through his injuries from the blast, Frederic Henry shows that he is the main code hero as he exhibits courage by being eager to rush out of the hospital. After being hit by the blast, the doctor in the hospital inquire of Frederic, Do you want to keep your knee, young man? No, I said (Hemingway 83). Through this quotation, Frederic shows courage, action, and the need to prove himself with†¦show more content†¦While alone in his room and contemplating this new nurse he met, Frederic confesses, This was better than going every evening to the house for officers where the girls climbed all over you and put your cap on backward as a sign of affection between their trips upstairs with brother officers. I knew I did not love Catherine Barkley nor had any idea of loving her. This was a game, like bridge, in which you said things instead of playing cards. Like bridge you had to pretend you were playing for money or laying for some stakes. Nobody had mentioned what the stakes were. I t was all right with me (Hemingway 25). When the narrator states This was a game, he shows that he is not with her for the emotional part, but because he needs to be with her to escape the place where his masculinity goes to die, with sexual women and officers with more to prove. Frederic shows a need to validate himself against his fellow soldiers and Catherine fills the role perfectly. While recuperating in the hospital, Rindali and Frederic argue, Be serious. You must have done something heroic either before or after. Remember carefully. I did not. Didnt you carry anybody on your back? Gordini says you carried several people on your back but the medical major at the first post declares it is impossible. He had a sign to the proposition for theShow MoreRelatedAnalysis Of The Idiot And The Idiot By Ernest Hemingway958 Words   |  4 PagesFyodor Dostoevsky’s The Idiot and Ernest Hemingway s A Farewell To Arms feature differing schools of thought in the ever-evolving world o f literature; A Farewell To Arms depicting impressionistic realism through Hemingway s objective retelling of events in the First World War, and The Idiot conveying psychological realism In Dostoevsky’s projection of not only his epileptic behavior, but his idyllic sense of man (Neilson Kashdan). Despite these differences in writing styles, each author featuresRead MoreA Farewell Of Arms, By Frederic Henry1269 Words   |  6 PagesIn the novel, A Farewell to Arms, it mentions several different things about the lives of Frederic Henry and Catherine Barkley. First, it starts off mentioning Frederic Henry. Frederic Henry is an young American who just so happened to be in Italy during World War I. Soon Frederic’s friend Rinaldi introduces him to a woman by the name of Catherine Barkley. Catherine Barkley was a British nurse who is trying to get over the death of her fiance. Additionally, Frederic Henry and Catherine Barkley wereRead MoreThe Death Of Franz Ferdinand Of A ustria1736 Words   |  7 Pageslooking to get into the action and get their adrenaline pumping while the US was acting â€Å"neutral† journeyed to Europe and joined other Allied armies. At the time, Ernest Hemingway was an American soldier who joined the Red Cross as an ambulance driver on his quest to see the war (Ruediger). After the war, he wrote A Farewell to Arms, a self-inspired story about his experiences. Hemingway’s atypical novel, set amidst the chaos of WWI, describes a heartbreaking romance that teaches that even love cannotRead MoreTheme Of Love In A Farewell To Arms1066 Words   |  5 PagesIn A Farewell to Arms, Lieutenant Frederic Henry retells his gruesome encounters of World War I as a medic serving for the Italian army. In an unprecedented encounter, Henry met Miss.Barkley during a trip to the nurse stations. The two young lovers quickly developed a romantic relationship which revolved around their strength, dedication, and perseverance in time s of struggle and discord. The novel provides an understanding of how the strength of love triumphs over arduous matters, and provides solaceRead MoreThe Struggle of Life and War in Ernest Hemingway’s Writing 1071 Words   |  5 PagesErnest Hemingway was one of the greatest authors of the twentieth century. His simple style, lucid depictions, and relatable narratives propelled him into a world of literary fame. These unique attributes are inimitable; Hemingway relates to the reader on a deeper level that even the best imitators cannot achieve. For this and many other reasons, critics praise Hemingway for the indefinable work of an exceptional writer. One of his most well-known novels, A Farewell to Arms, is notorious for itsRead MoreEssay about Character Analysis of Catherine Barkley696 Words   |  3 PagesErnest Hemingways, A Farewell to Arms. Her submissive nature is key to the existence of the story. So important, in fact, that the story may not be at all possible wi thout it. She submits to Lieutenant Henrys flirtatious passes immediately, triggering their romantic relationship before he injures his leg. She also totally dedicates herself to preserving the well being of Henry. Her behavior in both of these circumstances is typical for a woman of her time. Hemingway spends as little timeRead MoreA Farewell to Arms by Ernest Hemingway Essay1784 Words   |  8 PagesA Farewell to Arms by Ernest Hemingway Ernest Hemingways WWI classic, A Farewell to Arms is a story of initiation in which the growth of the protagonist, Frederic Henry, is recounted. Frederic is initially a naà ¯ve and unreflective boy who cannot grasp the meaning of the war in which he is so dedicated, nor the significance of his lovers predictions about his future. He cannot place himself amidst the turmoil that surrounds him and therefore, is unable to fully justify a world of death andRead MoreErnest Hemingway Essay2077 Words   |  9 Pages Ernest Hemingway pulled from his past present experiences to develop his own thoughts concerning death, relationships, and lies. He then mixed these ideas, along with a familiar setting, to create a masterpiece. One such masterpiece written early in Hemingways career is the short story, quot;Indian Camp.quot; quot;Indian Campquot; was originally published in the collection of quot;in Our Timequot; in 1925. A brief summary reveals that the main character, a teenager by the na me of Nick, travelsRead More Catherine as Code Hero in Ernest Hemingways A Farewell to Arms3316 Words   |  14 PagesCatherine as Code Hero in A Farewell to Arms      Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   In the last book of A Farewell to Arms, when the pregnant Catherine Barkley is having painful contractions, Frederic Henry, the narrator and protagonist of the novel, reminds his wife that she is a brave good girl (FTA 313). A day later, after undergoing a caesarian section and giving birth to a stillborn baby boy, Catherine proves just how brave she is; though she knows she is dying, she still has the dignity and strength to acceptRead MoreEssay about Code Hero Frederic Henry in Hemingways A Farewell to Arms613 Words   |  3 Pages In Ernest Hemingway’s A Farewell to Arms, the code hero is the protagonist Lieutenant Frederic Henry. Frederic is no exception and presents with the common features of any Hemingway hero. He treats women as mere objects of sexual pleasure, religion and the afterlife as inconsequential, and defeat with a measure of grace and finesse incomparable. His love for Catherine Barkley is sexually motivated, the author consistently ca sts a level of skepticism on religion through Frederic and his interactions

Comparing the Epic of Gilgamesh, Hesiods Theogony, and...

Comparing the Epic of Gilgamesh, Hesiods Theogony, and Ovids Metamorphoses There are many parallels between the Epic of Gilgamesh, Hesiods Theogony, and Ovids Metamorphoses. The first similarity is immediately apparent: structure. We can view the structure of the Gilgamesh story as three concentric circles: a story within a story within a story. In the outer circle, a narrator prepares the audience for the primary narrative, contained within the second circle: the tale of Gilgameshs adventures. Within this second circle a third narrative, the flood story, is told to Gilgamesh by Utanapishtim. Ovids Metamorphoses is told in a similar way: Ovid starts out by telling of his intention and invoking the gods help to tell the story.†¦show more content†¦In Metamorphoses, Ovid tells the reader his intention--to tell of bodies changed / to different forms--and invokes the gods to help him with the poem. This method of framing the tale does another thing: it gives an oral quality to the work. These myths began as oral tales passed from one generation to the next, which were eventually written down. It is interesting that the way they are written down reflects the oral nature of the original versions--a storyteller telling a story to an audience. It lends an immediacy to the work, leading us to look for its applicability to our own times. Because of this immediacy, there is an unintended irony that occurs in the reading of Gilgamesh. The narrator begins, Notice the strong walls of our city of Uruk! These walls were built by Gilgamesh . . . Now study the inner walls of our city. Examine the fine brickwork. These walls, too, surpass all others! (28). The irony is that these walls are probably deeply buried and cannot be seen, or if excavated, must be merely crumbled remnants of the once-impermeable wall. Another similarity is in the structure of the mythological world. In all three mythologies, the gods reside in the sky, whether in the heavens or on a mountaintop. Below the sky rests the earth, and below that, the Underworld. Even the god structure is similar between the Sumerian mythology and the Greco-Roman tradition. There is a usurped sky god (Uranus or Ouranos in Greek

Honeypots Essay Example For Students

Honeypots Essay Nowadays networks which are connected to the Internet are under permanent attack by intruders and automated attacks of worms. A variety of detection tools exist such as Intrusion Detection Systems (IDS) and firewalls, but the main problem is that they only react on preconfigured and known attacks. Although there exist a number of security tools that are available today, none of these tools can easily address all of the security goals of an organization. As computer attacks evolve, new responses are essential. Thus organisations look for more advanced tools which are effective in detecting security attacks and recovering from them. In order to monitor the activities of hackers, the methodology adopted is to deceive, by giving them some emulated set of services on a system which appears to be legitimate. The hackers’ activities are then logged and monitored to gain insight into their employed tactics. This idea is adopted in Honeypots, a system whose value lies in being probed, attacked and compromised. 1. 1 What are honeypots Honeypots are an upcoming technology that can be used to detect and analyze network attacks. A honeypot is an apparently vulnerable system deployed to be hacked. Some tests have shown that honeypots are exposed to lots of known attacks and noise that hide the valuable information about new attacks and vulnerabilities. Nowadays, they are also being extensively used by the research community to study issues in network security. Using honeypots provides a cost-effective solution to increase the security posture of an organization. Through our paper we found that the use of honeypots is an effective educational tool to study issues in network security. Honeypots. dont catch only the lame hackers. Sometimes they catch the new tools and are able to reduce their effectiveness by letting security practitioners quickly react before they become widespread. They dont catch just the attackers outside our firewall but the hackers who work for our own company. They dont catch just unimportant stuff; sometimes they catch industrial spies. They can be time- and effort-consuming to set up and operate, but theyre, instructive, and a terrific way for a good guy to gain an education on computer forensics in a real-world environment. Honeypots keeps the hackers on their toes and do a lot to shatter their ense of invulnerability. Honeypots come in a variety of shapes and sizes—everything from a simple Windows system emulating a few services to an entire network of productions systems waiting to be hacked. 1. 2 ROLES OF HONEYPOTS Honeypots are unique in that they are not a single tool that solves a specific problem. Instead, they are a highly flexible technology that can fulfill a variet y of different roles. It is up to us how we want to use and deploy these technologies. A honeypot is very different from most traditional security mechanisms. Its a security resource whose value lies in being probed, attacked, or compromised. The idea of building and deploying a computer meant to be hacked seems to be mysterious. The world of hacking, of taking over a computer, has been an area of interest. As in case of other forms of crime, little has been known about how the attackers operate, what tools they use, how they learn to hack, and what motivates them to attack. Honeypots give us an opportunity to peer into this world. By watching attackers when they break into and control our honeypot, we learn how these individuals operate and why. Honeypots give us the ability to take the offensive. Traditionally, the attacker has always had the initiative. They control whom they attack, when, and how. All we can do in the security community is defend; build security measures, prevent the bad guy from getting in, and then detect whenever those preventive measures fail. As any good military strategist says,† the secret to a good defense is a good offense. † But organizations have always been limited on how they can take the battle to the attacker. But Honeypots give us the advantage by giving us control: we allow the bad guys to attack them. Chisholm Trail EssayTheir method is simple: focus on a single vulnerability, then scan as many systems as possible for that vulnerability. Persistence, not advanced technical skills, is how these attackers successfully break into a system. With almost no technical skills or knowledge, anyone can simply download tools from the Internet that do all the work for them. Sometimes these tools combine all of the activity just described into a fully automated weapon that only needs to be pointed at certain systems, or even entire networks, and then launched with the click of a button. An attacker simply downloads these tools, follows the instructions, launches the attacks, and happily hacks her way into hundreds or even thousands of systems. These tools are rapidly spreading across the Internet, giving access to thousands of attackers. What used to be a highly complex development process is now extremely simple. 1. 5. 2 Targets of Choice While script kiddies and automated attacks represent the largest percentage of attackers, the smaller, more dangerous percentage of attackers are the skilled ones that dont want anyone to know about their existence. These advanced blackhats do not release their tools. They only attack and compromise systems of high value, systems of choice. When these attackers are successful, they do not tell the world about it. Instead, they silently infiltrate organizations, collecting information, users accounts, and access to critical resources. Targets of Choice While script kiddies and automated attacks represent the largest percentage of attackers, the smaller, more dangerous percentage of attackers are the skilled ones that dont want anyone to know about their existence. These advanced blackhats do not release their tools. They only attack and compromise systems of high value, systems of choice. When these attackers are successful, they do not tell the world about it. Instead, they silently infiltrate organizations, collecting information, users accounts, and access to critical resources. Often organizations have no idea that they have been compromised. Advanced attackers can spend months, even years, no idea that they have been compromised. Advanced attackers can spend months,even years,within a compromised organization without anyone finding out. These attackers are interested in a variety of targets. It could be an online banking system, where the attacker isafter the database containing millions of credit cards. It could be a case of corporate espionage, where the attacker is attempting to infiltrate a car manufacturer and obtain research designs of future cars. Or it can be as sinister as a foreign government attempting to access highly confidential government secrets, potentially compromising the security of a country. These individuals are highly trained and experienced and they are far more difficult to detect than script kiddies. Even after they have successfully penetrated an organization, they will take advanced steps to ensure that their presence or activity cannot be detected. Very little is known about these attackers. Unlike unskilled attackers, advanced blackhats do not share the same tools or techniques. Each one tends to develop his own skills, methods, and tool sets specialized for specific activities. As such, when the tools and methods of one advanced attacker are discovered, the information gained may not apply to other advanced blackhats.